Investment bank B. Riley has initiated formal coverage on two Nasdaq-listed bitcoin treasury vehicles — Strategy Inc. (MSTR) and Strive Inc. (ASST) — assigning Buy ratings with price targets of $175 and $12, respectively. The move is notable for derivatives traders because both companies function as leveraged, equity-wrapped BTC proxies, meaning institutional re-rating events like this can directly influence spot demand, funding rates, and open interest dynamics across BTC perpetual markets.
How Does This Affect BTC Perpetual Markets?
As of early March 2026, BTC has retraced approximately 45% from its October 2025 peak near $126,000, settling around $69,000. That drawdown has compressed NAV multiples across the corporate treasury space and slowed the equity-to-BTC accumulation flywheel that drove significant spot demand through late 2024 and 2025. When companies like Strategy raise equity capital to buy BTC, the downstream effect on spot markets feeds directly into perp funding rates — a dynamic that has been notably absent during this correction phase.
Strategy currently trades at 1.2x NAV, well off its 3.4x peak in 2024. Strive trades at approximately 0.9x modified NAV. B. Riley's initiation frames these discounts as entry opportunities, but for perp traders, the more relevant signal is whether institutional re-rating translates into renewed equity issuance and BTC accumulation — which would add structural buying pressure to spot markets and potentially push funding rates positive on major exchanges.
Strategy's Treasury Scale Creates Asymmetric BTC Sensitivity
Strategy holds 738,731 BTC as of its most recent disclosure, after spending $1.28 billion to acquire 17,994 BTC in a single week. At current prices, the treasury is valued near $50 billion. The price sensitivity here is significant: every $1,000 move in BTC translates to approximately $739 million in treasury value for Strategy alone. This level of concentration means MSTR equity increasingly behaves as a delta-one BTC instrument with embedded leverage — a profile that sophisticated traders already exploit through options and convertible note arbitrage.
Strategy's capital structure spans six securities, including five series of perpetual preferred stock, convertible notes, and common equity. In FY2025, the company raised $25.3 billion through equity issuance, making it the largest U.S. public issuer for the second consecutive year. Its software subscription segment posted Q4 2025 revenue growth of 62.1% year over year, though this remains a secondary factor in how the market prices MSTR. Despite this operational performance, MSTR shares are down 51.6% over the past year — a sharper drawdown than BTC itself, consistent with its leveraged-proxy behavior.
Strive's Dual-Engine Model Adds Complexity for Traders
Strive's structure is more layered. The company holds approximately 13,132 BTC in treasury alongside an asset management business overseeing $2.5 billion in AUM. It went public via reverse merger in September 2025 and completed an all-stock acquisition of Semler Scientific in January 2026, adding a medical device revenue stream. B. Riley notes minimal near-term convertible debt obligations, which reduces forced-selling risk — a meaningful distinction in a high-volatility environment.
ASST shares are down 42.3% year to date and 28.6% over the past month. At 0.9x modified NAV, the stock is effectively pricing in a discount to the sum of its BTC holdings and asset management business. For perp traders, Strive is a lower-liquidity vehicle, but its BTC sensitivity — roughly $13.1 million per $1,000 move in BTC — makes it a useful secondary indicator of institutional sentiment toward corporate treasury plays.
Macro Context: Equity-Driven BTC Demand Has Stalled
The broader narrative here is that the equity-to-BTC accumulation loop — where rising MSTR stock prices enable dilutive equity raises that fund BTC purchases — has been disrupted by the current drawdown. Until NAV multiples re-expand or BTC stabilizes and recovers, this demand channel remains constrained. B. Riley's Buy ratings could serve as a catalyst for institutional re-engagement, but the structural demand impact on BTC perp markets will depend on whether Strategy resumes large-scale issuance activity.
Trading Implications
- Strategy's
738,731 BTCtreasury creates a$739 milliondelta per$1,000BTC move — traders should monitor MSTR equity flows as a leading indicator of potential spot accumulation pressure. - MSTR trading at
1.2xNAV (vs. a3.4xpeak) suggests the leveraged premium has compressed significantly; a re-expansion could coincide with renewed BTC spot demand and positive funding rate shifts on major perp venues. - The equity-to-BTC flywheel remains stalled while BTC trades near
$69,000; watch for fresh MSTR equity issuance announcements as a signal that institutional accumulation is resuming. - ASST's
0.9xmodified NAV discount and low convertible debt exposure reduce near-term liquidation risk, but thin liquidity makes it a poor vehicle for large directional perp hedges. - A sustained BTC recovery toward prior highs could rapidly re-expand NAV multiples for both companies, compressing short opportunities in MSTR and ASST while adding upward pressure to BTC open interest.
- Perp traders should track funding rates closely — a shift from negative to consistently positive funding across BTC pairs would signal that institutional spot demand, potentially linked to renewed corporate treasury activity, is re-entering the market.