B. Riley Bets on MSTR, ASST After BTC's 45% Drop

B. Riley Initiates Coverage on Bitcoin Treasury Stocks Amid Deep BTC Drawdown

Investment bank B. Riley entered the bitcoin treasury equity space on March 10, 2026, initiating coverage of Strategy (MSTR) and Strive Asset Management (ASST) with buy ratings. Price targets were set at $175 for MSTR and $12 for ASST — representing upside of roughly 23% and 38% from their respective trading prices of $141.82 and $8.67 at time of publication.

The catalyst for coverage initiation is the sector-wide valuation reset triggered by bitcoin's steep decline. BTC fell more than 45% from approximately $126,000 in October 2025 to around $69,000 in early March 2026. That drawdown compressed market-to-NAV premiums across the bitcoin treasury space and effectively stalled equity issuance programs that had been the primary engine of institutional BTC accumulation.

How Does the mNAV Compression Affect BTC Perpetual Markets?

For perpetual futures traders, the mNAV dynamic at Strategy is a meaningful macro signal. Strategy currently holds 738,731 BTC — the largest corporate bitcoin treasury on record. Its shares now trade at approximately 1.2x modified NAV, a significant discount to the cycle peak of roughly 3.4x reached in 2024. When mNAV premiums compress this sharply, equity-based BTC accumulation slows, reducing a structural source of spot demand that has historically supported BTC price floors.

As of early March 2026, the BTC spot price hovering near $69,000 is testing levels where leveraged long positions in perpetual markets face elevated liquidation risk. Funding rates on major venues have likely shifted toward neutral or slightly negative territory as sentiment deteriorates — a signal that the aggressive long bias seen during Q4 2025 has largely unwound. Traders should monitor open interest closely: a sustained recovery in MSTR's mNAV premium would signal renewed institutional confidence and could catalyze a re-leveraging event in BTC perps.

Strategy's Digital Credit Platform: A New Demand Vector

B. Riley analyst Fedor Shabalin highlighted Strategy's evolving capital structure as a potential re-rating catalyst. The firm has constructed what the analyst describes as a "digital credit platform" — a combination of common equity and five series of perpetual preferred shares carrying yields between 8% and 11.5%, supported by approximately $2.25 billion in cash reserves.

This structure matters for derivatives traders because it diversifies Strategy's funding sources beyond at-the-market equity issuance. If preferred share demand accelerates, Strategy could resume BTC purchases without relying on equity dilution — a scenario that would tighten spot supply and exert upward pressure on BTC price, compressing negative funding spreads in the process. Strategy's most recent purchase of 17,994 BTC at an average cost of $70,946 per coin, totaling $1.28 billion, confirms management's continued conviction at current price levels.

Strive Offers a Different Risk Profile

Strive (ASST) presents a structurally distinct bet. The firm combines a bitcoin treasury of approximately 13,100 BTC with a traditional asset-management business overseeing roughly $2.5 billion in AUM. Critically, Strive carries low leverage and trades at around 0.9x modified NAV — technically below the value of its underlying assets. Its preferred shares yield approximately 12.5%, the highest in the peer group covered by B. Riley.

For traders seeking indirect BTC exposure with a yield component and a margin of safety on valuation, ASST offers a lower-beta entry relative to MSTR. However, its smaller BTC treasury means it contributes less to spot market dynamics and carries more idiosyncratic business risk tied to asset management flows.

Trading Implications

• BTC's 45% drawdown from $126,000 to ~$69,000 has materially compressed MSTR's mNAV from 3.4x to 1.2x — historically, recoveries from sub-1.5x mNAV levels have coincided with BTC price stabilization and renewed long positioning in perp markets.
• Strategy's shift toward preferred equity financing (8%–11.5% yields) reduces its dependence on equity dilution for BTC accumulation, potentially reintroducing a structural spot bid that could tighten BTC perp funding rates from current neutral/negative levels.
• Watch open interest on BTC perpetuals as a leading indicator: a re-expansion of OI alongside MSTR share price recovery toward B. Riley's $175 target would confirm institutional re-engagement and flag a potential squeeze on short positioning.
• ASST trading at 0.9x mNAV with a 12.5% preferred yield offers a hedged expression of BTC exposure — relevant for traders looking to balance directional risk with income generation in a high-volatility environment.
• Altcoin perp markets remain vulnerable while BTC spot hovers near $69,000; a confirmed BTC recovery driven by renewed treasury accumulation would likely trigger outsized moves in high-beta altcoin perpetuals, with liquidation cascades possible in both directions near key technical levels.